It’s 9 p.m. on a Tuesday, my deadline is looming near;1 there’s a wine glass sitting next to me—my writing may not be so clear. Those who follow this column religiously,2 enjoy timely reporting, I know3—but with the New Year here and the news austere,4 I thought I’d give some predictions a go.5
Chorus: Drop a footnote, funny column guy. Drop a footnote, please. We’re all stuck at work, where the boss is a jerk; reading your column helps time pass in a breeze.
EFCA
Now the President promised unions EFCA6; whether he’ll get them their law, we’ll see. It’s unlikely to pass during this economic morass—so for now we’ll stay mostly union free. Some say, hey, we believe EFCA is imminent—and unions will easily organize. It’s true that one day this law will get passed, but in a largely watered-down compromise.7
Chorus: Can we stay union-free, Mr. Footnote Guy? Can we stay union-free? ‘Cuz union dues suck and their pensions run amuck, and that’s not good for our employees!
Health care
Now SF has employer-funded healthcare8 that was struck down and then given new life. The Supreme Court might hear this case this year—unless Congress’ bill overcomes strife. And if Supremes rule preemption is mandated, it’s likely Congress intercedes; with this Congress aboard for healthcare reform, you can bet business’ profits recede.9
Chorus: Healthcare reform, Mr. Footnote Guy? Really, can it be? It’s tough enough to make payroll now—especially in this economy.
Immigration
It’s a sticky one, immigration is—politics being what they are. But after this year, illegals will still be here—coming on foot, by plane, boat and car. And enforcement measures will aim at employers, with no regard for why they’re here. Until we’ll pick or we’ll clean, then others will be seen—getting paid for work we seem to fear.10 So instead of aliens being deported, employers will be fined and cuffed—this Prez’s focus stays on employers’ evil ways—so you better ensure your I-9 skills are buffed.
Chorus: This is no longer funny, Mr. Footnote Guy—this is no longer funny at all. From unions, to healthcare to aliens, these predictions make employers want to bawl!
Happy New Year!11
1 A fact oft reminded me by the repeated emails of my editor throughout the day. Hey, if I didn’t procrastinate this much, she’d have very little else to do this close to print.
2 Thanks, Mom.
3 As well as repeated digs about my editor’s penchant for home grown herbs.
4 I tried so hard to work in an employment topic centered on Tiger Woods’ recent fall from grace—I just couldn’t work it in with a straight face. The only legal issue I could think of is the travesty it creates regarding equal rights. I assure you, if Mrs. Woods had been found face down in the street under mysterious, golf club-wielding circumstances, Tiger would be wearing an orange jumpsuit (with no Nike swoosh!)
5 La la la, de de da, la la, de de da da da. My apologies to Billy Joel. I originally thought about trying to parody Nickelback’s “Rockstar.” I determined it probably would have appealed to a much smaller subset of my readership. (Plus, my mom probably doesn’t know that song.)
6 “The Employee Free Choice Act”—quite a misnomer. For a good read on it substantively, see “The Illusion of Choice” [Simply Legal, Oct. 2008].
7 Many of my management-side colleagues scream about EFCA’s imminence in a manner akin to Chicken Little’s famous hyperbole. While it’s prudent to monitor EFCA’s progress through Congress, and remain vigilant to organizing activity (as well as diligent with respect to the types of policies and benefits that can keep employees from thinking they want a union), the sky has not yet fallen. If you want specific predictions, I surmise it’s unlikely the card-check feature of EFCA will survive, and the ridiculously short deadlines for contract negotiation and elections will get lengthened before EFCA has a chance at passage.
8 Healthy San Francisco—an ordinance that requires employers to provide healthcare for employees at a particular level or to pay into a city-provided healthcare program.
9 And just think—then every municipality in the country will be free to attempt their own version of employer-funded healthcare. If you think legal and administrative compliance is tough already, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Start your letter writing campaign to Congress post haste.
10 The debate about immigration enforcement will rage on for decades. The fact is, our economy will depend on unauthorized aliens until our citizens develop a desire and willingness to do the same type of laborious work, or until we find a way to render unlawful entrance less enticing without jeopardizing the health and safety of people and communities. By no means is this an easy question to answer—for the near term, however, employers will be the ones who bear the brunt of immigration enforcement.
11 And yes, I’m aware that I took a stanza liberty with my parody. You parody purists will just have to live with it—I had a minimum word count I had to reach!
