OK, so it’s time to ask the big question: What does the future of the wine industry look like? Not bad, actually, but some interesting facts come out when you look at the industry as a whole. Looking at the high-end is a whole lot different than looking at just our little niche of premium wines. Overall trends show that the popularity of sweet wines is still increasing, being led by the Muscatos and other sweet white wines. (Look at some of Gallo’s newest entries into the market.)
That reminds me of a question I’ve wondered about for years: Does Gallo make trends or follow them? Remember Bartles & James and other fads years ago? It would appear that the motto I use—start the trend, milk the trend and bail out—is still alive and well. Red blends are also thriving well and tend to be on the sweet and medium-bodied side of the ledger. The biggest group these appeal to? You got it: the millennials.
As can be seen locally as well as nationally, beer is entering the high-end field again. I say "again" because microbreweries were very hot items a few years ago and are now returning but on a slightly larger scale. Many upscale to high-end restaurants are now putting together beer lists with the same care as they do their wine lists, and many are finding that beer is as enhancing to a meal as the right wine is.
Somewhat of a surprise is the rise of hard ciders even right here in our own backyard. Different flavors, marketing support and increased distribution have all led to an uprising in these products. I’ve noticed with great interest that, during the wine judging we do every year, cider entries are dramatically growing and doing quite well with the judges.
These trends all come from Technomic’s study of “Adult Beverage Trends for 2013.” A few other gems include the rapid rise of flavored vodkas, such as my wife’s discovery of appletinis as well as other flavors. We could also throw in Nocino and Limoncello as products that people are enjoying more and more. (These are easy to make at home as well, but use good vodka to fortify! I tried Everclear once and thought I was going to die.)
With everyone thinking we’re a nation of drunks, I’d like to refute the statement based on a very recent international study that says the United States drinks the lowest amount of alcohol in the developed world. Yes that’s the nation and it does include the Southern Baptist south and Utah but we try to hold up our end on the West Coast. The average American drinks just 9.4 liters of alcohol per year, which equates to 470 pints of beer or 31 glasses of wine. How many non-drinkers are you carrying? The Brits consume 1,100 pints of beer and the Russians 1,350 pints of beer or 90 bottles of vodka. See what clean livers we have? To finish up and make you feel good, we rank only 22 in the world and our per capita alcohol consumption has dropped 23 percent since 1990. Looks like us oldsters better keep drinking to keep the numbers up. A bottle a day will help that so keep up the good work.
OK, ready for some more surprises? We go into any major supermarket and go down the wine aisle(s) and wonder how there can be so many wines produced in just California let alone the rest of the United States, where every state now has at least one winery. There are thousands of wine labels that must come from at least hundreds of wineries. Well, my friend, if you take all of the Gallo labels, add The Wine Group labels, then throw in Constellation labels, you’ve accounted for 51.5 percent of all wine sold in supermarkets. If you throw in Treasury Wine Estates and Bronco, you’re up to 60 percent. You’re thus leaving only 40 percent of the market to the other thousands of wineries scattered across the country and abroad. Gallo and Constellation have websites that list all their brands, but The Wine Group doesn’t even do that. Just on a local basis, Constellation’s holding in Sonoma County includes Ravenswood, Simi, Clos du Bois, Blackstone and Estancia, and the local Gallo stable holds such labels as MacMurray, Twin Valley, Redwood Creek, Rancho Zabaco, Gallo Family, Sonoma and so on. Also I should throw out that 10 percent of the white wine market is Chardonnay and 10 percent of the red market is Cabernet Sauvignon. So what does it all mean? The wine industry continues to consolidate as mergers and acquisitions continue with Jackson Family and the Foley operation continuing to buy up others. We may soon be like the beer and soda industries, where two companies in each group control three-quarters of the total U.S. sales.
Stop the presses! This just out! Mendocino and Lake counties will get a chance to prove what they preach (that they’re as good as everybody else) and Napa will get a chance to prove it’s better than the rest of the North Coast, while Sonoma will continue to dominate the winnings. In June 2013, the first annual North Coast Wine Challenge will be held in Santa Rosa and give all of the wineries in the North Coast a chance to put their money where their mouth is. When the dust has settled, we don’t want to hear any poor mouthing about “Oh, we didn’t enter” or “The judges were crazy.” The judges will all be prominent North Coast winemakers, marketers and national press to spread the truth. Napa will probably continue to say it’s the best and doesn’t have to prove it but most will concede only Cabernet to them. OK Mendo and Lake, put up or shut up. I’m sure our Sonoma boys will be out in force. More to follow!
Grab a micro-brew, or a glass of Moscato, or an apple-flavored vodka and join the world in bringing in the new—for this year, at least. It changes every year, so we can see what pops up then. Have a great spring and summer!
