The sale of the 63-acre Fireman’s Fund campus could signal Marin County is moving toward a bounce after months of COVID-induced depression.
It isn’t just that the long-dormant property is the largest vacant asset in the area. It’s that joint venture partners Bay West Development and Forum Investment Company looked at the San Marin property and felt it was worth rolling the dice.
To understand the wager Bay West-Forum is making on the complex, now known as North Bay Crossing, consider these factors. At the time of this writing, the last day of January, the JV still has no entitlements where the project is concerned, meaning whatever plan they come up with must receive the blessing of the City of Novato. While it’s in Novato’s best interest to have the property in use, that won’t keep the city from slow-walking the project or placing difficult demands on the JV. The first two letters of the city’s name are worth noting.
While the city could be either a formidable foe or a valuable partner with respect to the project, it’s far from the only dog in the fight. The neighborhood will weigh in as it should, regarding traditional impacts such as property uses, traffic and density. The environmental community will have a say as well. And affordable housing advocates will do their best to assure the project will contain a meaningful mix of below-market-rate units.
Marin has long been viewed by commercial developers as the riddle that refuses to be solved. Property is expensive, approvals are time-consuming and uncertain, and development itself ranks several levels below the media, the Giant’s management and Donald Trump in terms of desirability.
But the flip side is that because real estate is pricey and development is difficult, the upside for a successful project carries the allure of a healthy return-on-investment.
In October, we brought you the news the campus was off the market and that there was two months of unspecified work to be done. The campus has essentially been a home for ghosts since Fireman’s Fund left for Petaluma in 2015. With a monster mortgage on the property and no tenants, it bounced into the laps of its largest creditor, hedge fund DW Partners.
When Bay West-Forum made its purchase of the three-building campus, it had no official plan to submit to the city, but it was generally believed a mixed-use project will eventually emerge in which residential housing, retail business and perhaps some office space will form a modest community.
The new ownership can’t be accused of going into the project without a feel for the locals. San Francisco-based Bay West is run by founder and Ross resident Bill Poland. Poland is a former Ross town councilman, former chairman of the San Francisco Convention and Visitors Bureau and former president of the Olympic Club in San Francisco. He’s currently the chairman emeritus of the Buck Institute for Research on Aging.
First and foremost, however, Poland is a real estate guy. He knows a redevelopment of this scale in Marin is a long-term project, emphasis on long. The process includes feedback from the community, first draft plans and feedback on those plans. Next will be the inevitable threats and counter-threats of legal skirmishes and more discussion. At some point years down the line, the project could be entitled and then comes the build itself.
Following the purchase of the former Fireman’s Fund campus, Poland was quoted as saying that he intends to seek out the viewpoints of the community and stakeholders to shape a project that can not only get the nod from Novato’s city council, but also enjoy public backing.
Poland said exactly the right thing. Moreover, his public comments say that the JV plan to demolish the 700,000 square feet of Class A office space is to make way for the future. Such a bold move means that the JV has seen the future and it doesn’t include much in the way of offices.
The City of Novato is under a fair amount of pressure to address the state’s new guidance regarding providing enough affordable housing, and North Bay Crossing presents an opportunity. With that in mind, the campus includes desirable amenities for residential development including hiking and mountain-bike trails, a softball and soccer complex and a volleyball court.
How residential and business would pencil out on the campus is more than an open question. One long-time Marin real-estate player said he found the purchase of the ghost campus arrogant, that such a redevelopment would take a decade to pull off, if it could happen at all.
When time permits, I look forward to talking to Poland about his vision.
