The Marin Board of Supervisors have seen the future—and it’s wet.
At this writing, which comes just before Halloween, the Supes are digesting a report from the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (try sliding all that onto a business card), an august group of elected officials charged with safeguarding the bay environment.
The commission, better known as the BCDC, had the unenviable task of delivering bad news. What they served up is a strategy known as Bay Adapt, designed to prepare the area and residents who border the bay for rising water caused by climate change.
To take politics out of this, and to prevent me from going on a rant hammering those who say climate change is a hoax, let’s assume that it’s true and that it would behoove we humans to do something about it.
Editors please note not a single swear word was used in the previous paragraph.
So, while there are nine Bay Area counties, the projected impact and damage of rising water to Marin is second only to Alameda County, according to the BCDC. This is one of those times in life when it’s much better to be lower in the standings, like my San Francisco Giants whose approach to baseball is all wet.
According to the BCDC, the cost to defend Marin from an estimated 12-to-32-inch sea level rise by 2050 is $17 billion. Overall, for the whole Bay Area, the figure is $110 billion.
But the cost is not just measured in dollars. The not-so-rosy predictions say Marin would lose 104,000 existing jobs, 85,000 planned jobs and 28,000 residents would be impacted by the flooding that would come with a rising sea level.
Bounce those numbers off the census data from 2021, which shows Marin with 96,000 people employed. While job losses are brutal, consider the growth that is being projected as well. You go from 96,000 up to 189,000 jobs before a rising tide that both raises boats and then sinks them.
A significant storm in the next 40 to 100 years would swamp 13,000 Marin housing units as well as 70,000 planned units.
The loss of housing is a bitter bit of medicine considering the hand wringing that has taken place over the last 18 months as the state and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) tell Marin cities and towns alike to fast track housing opportunities for the future.
When it rains, it pours. Consider the future for Mill Valley, Sausalito, San Rafael’s Canal District as well as West Marin as waters rise, making Corte Madera’s Lucky Drive look like a mud puddle.
All of us know of the annual winter disaster known as Highway 37. The two-lane highway connecting Marin to Sonoma County as well as Vallejo is known to flood during period of high rain fall, sometimes closing the highway.
Caltrans has proposed a raised roadway 30 feet higher than Novato Creek. The project would include a viaduct and carries a $4 billion price tag. The whole redo is projected to be completed in 2040, and you can take that timeframe to the bank because Caltrans projects are not subject to changing priorities, shifting political winds or budgetary crisis.
Further complicating that fix is a plan to turn Highway 37 into a toll road, a plan that is less than fully embraced by the public as the crossing of the route is viewed as an economic injustice—40% of the cars driven on a daily basis have working class individuals behind the wheel.
Generally speaking, Marin embraces Mom Earth the way Donald Trump hugs idiots, that is deeply. Climate change and the BCDC’s dire warning is difficult because Marin County’s fortunes are tied to other neighbors and local efforts can only go so far.
But the journey of 1,000 miles begins with the first step, a pair of sturdy shoes and possibly a viaduct.
Your Marin Moment
Under normal circumstances, this is the spot where I find something in Marin that is kind of funny. Or ironic, or perhaps might cause us to think.
But these are anything but normal circumstances. The war in the Middle East is on fire. Our country sees a mass shooting almost every day. And a hearty portion of this country is dumb enough to want to return Donald Trump to office.
That said, I’d like to set aside my normal smart-ass musings to ask all of us this holiday to look beyond our family and friends. If you are fortunate enough to have enough, please consider those who could use a hand. Now more than ever, some generosity and kindness can for a moment throw a little light into a world that knows too much darkness, too often.
Thanks for reading us, and for considering my simple plea.
Bill Meagher is a contributing editor at NorthBay biz. He is also a senior reporter with The Deal, a Manhattan-based digital financial news outlet. He wishes you the happiest of holidays and hopes that we all enjoy a kind and peaceful 2024.
