MidPen Housing, shown above breaking ground in 2023 at the Mahonia Glen project in Santa Rosa, was an early supporter of Regional Measure 4, before urging BAHFA officials to pull the initiative in the face of poor poll numbers. (Courtesy midpen-housing.org)
Affordable housing advocates will have to wait a while for a potential Bay Area housing lifeline—the $20 billion regional affordable housing bond is being yanked from the Nov. 5 ballot.
With poll numbers showing Regional Measure 4 heading for defeat less than three months before the election, the Bay Area Housing Finance Authority pulled the measure Wednesday, the last day to withdraw a measure before the election.
Voters in all nine Bay Area counties would have weighed in on the bond, which would have needed two-thirds approval to pass. A poll the BAHFA conducted in June showed only 55% of voters were likely to check “yes” on the ballot.
Adding to the concern is the presence on the ballot of Proposition 5, which if passed will amend the state constitution to reduce the threshold of votes to pass a bond to 55%. While the potential passage of Prop. 5 would have given Regional Measure A a fighting chance, the bond’s passing would still have been a close call, and BAHFA officials felt their simultaneous presence on the ballot might drag both initiatives down.
The bond would have added an estimated annual property tax of $18.98 per $100,000 of assessed value. Its total cost would have been about $48.3 billion.
Housing Finance Authority officials said the strategy going forward would be to pass Prop. 5 first, then return with a housing bond at a later date. As BAHFA Board Member Federal Glover put it during the vote to withdraw Measure 4, getting Prop. 5 “across the finish line” is the most important step. Then if Prop. 5 passes, it will provide a “greater opportunity for success” with a housing bond.
Marin County Supervisor Katie Rice, who serves on the Affordable and Workforce Housing Subcommittee for the supervisors, conveyed her disappointment in the measure’s withdrawal, but affirmed Marin’s commitment “to finding solutions that can provide more affordable, stable housing for all our residents.”
“We know this is an important issue and hope to see new strategies in the near future,” Rice said in a statement. Marin County would have received roughly $699 million in funding if the bond had remained on the ballot and passed.
Bay Area-wide, it would have provided funds for up to 90,000 affordable homes.
