And I’m not speaking about The Singularity, when computers finally become capable of simulating a human brain, which is currently forecast for 2045, and the subject of Time magazine’s February 21 issue. At least now I know that, if I can only live until I’m 90, chances are that I—or at least my consciousness—can live forever, transferred to a comfy silicon surrogate.
Assuming, of course, that an asteroid or other near-Earth object (NEO) doesn’t take us out in the next 34 years, a fate we narrowly avoided in the movie “Armageddon.”
But for me, it’s all about the EMP (electromagnetic pulse) of doom. One potential source for a world-killing EMP is a nuclear explosion: It’s estimated that a 1.4 megaton bomb (about 50 times the size of the Hiroshima blast) detonated about 250 miles above Kansas would destroy most of the unprotected electronics in the entire continental United States. I’m not too worried about this happening nowadays, thanks to the end of the Cold War and our focus on economic warfare. The more interdependent the world becomes, the less likely any country can afford to wipe out its trading partners.
On the other hand, Mother Nature has an enormous source of potential EMP activity in the sun. In a February 15 keynote address at the Tools of Change for Publishing Conference, author Margaret Atwood noted, “The [unintended consquence] of electronic information includes: One big solar flare, and it’s gone.” Almost simultaneously, the sun itself released a category X solar flare (a “major event”) on Valentine’s Day, which temporarily disrupted communication in the western Pacific. The flare was by no means the biggest ever, but it serves to remind us that old Sol is currently ramping its flare productivity toward a solar maximum in May 2013, part of Solar Cycle 24.
While an EMP generated by a nuclear detonation could conceivably fry all the electronics in the United States, we’re fortu-nately protected from solar flare activity by the magnetic fields surrounding the earth. Solar flares deform these invisble fields, but it would take something truly out of the ordinary to cause the same disruption as a nuclear airblast. The real problem with solar flares is their effect on power transmission. The interaction between the charged particles and the earth’s magnetic field can cause surges in the transmission grid. A flare of sufficient size can cause transformers operating near their limits to melt down due to an overload of current. And because the power grid is interconnected, a few failures can cascade and result in a complete loss of electric power. But unlike our homes, where we reset a cicuit breaker or replace a fuse when the power surges, it takes months or years to replace a transformer like one of the 300 or so largest ones that stitch the U.S. power grid together—and that’s when the power’s working.
This is one of those cases of “unintended consequences.” No one dies because 300 major transformers become melted piles of slag. They die from all the things that happen because electricity isn’t available. A 144-page National Academy of Sciences report titled “Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts” summarized it like this:
“While a severe storm is a low-frequency-of-occurrence event, it has the potential for long-duration catastrophic impacts to the power grid and its users. Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures, with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in about 12 to 24 hours; and immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on.”
The United States is hugely dependent on its ability to generate and transmit electric power. The report goes on to estimate that recovery could take several years and might represent significantly more than $1 trillion in economic loss.
Is a solar flare more likely than Earth getting hit by an asteroid? While I don’t know the exact probability of either, the Sun goes through solar cycles that peak every 11 years or so (as measured by solar flare activity). Unlike asteroid hits, there have been multiple recorded flare events in just the past 150 years, starting with the 1859 “Carrington” event, which set telegraphs on fire. A large flare in 1989 knocked out power in Quebec for nine hours. So, while an improbable “Armageddon” is fun to watch on my (electric-powered) TV, “EMP: The Movie” would be too close to home to really laugh at.
Lightning can blow out your home’s electricity. The solution? Lightning rods and surge supressors, which isolate sensitive components. Similarly, an EMP “surge protector” for the nation’s transmission grid has been proposed. The problem is, politics and cost make its implementation a slow process. The
U.S. House of Representatives unanimously approved HR5026 last year, but the Senate version of the bill didn’t include the EMP safety provisions (saving all of an estimated $45 million over the next decade).
Unfortunately, there’s not a lot that individual citizens and businesses can do. What’s your disaster plan when there’s no electricity? Usually, businesses close when a power outage lasts more than a few minutes. What happens when the power outage is going to last a few months?
Don’t worry though—the world is going to end on December 21, 2012. I saw the movie.
Michael E. Duffy is a experienced and successful startup technologist, and is always on the lookout for The Next Big Thing. His personal website is www.mikeduffy.com.
