From the Editor: 2023, Ready or Not!

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shutterstock_2184574023

“Never make predictions,” quipped legendary baseball manager Casey Stengel. “Especially about the future.”

The Yankee Hall of Famer would have made a good economist, circa 2023. Despite their collective recent track record, economists near and far are back for another round of New Year’s forecasts about the next 12 months of the U.S. economy, blithefully hoping we’ve all forgotten about the previous two New Year’s prognostications.

Recall early 2021, when the darkest days of COVID were in the rearview and folks were envisioning a new Roaring Twenties era of post-pandemic pandemonia when people would live a can’t-take-it-with-you lifestyle of mass consumption and excess? Well, turned out really, really wanting to live the high life is no match for decades of wage stagnation crossed with current supply chain barriers.

Then last year, when it became abundantly clear the hoped-for unprecedented growth in consumer spending was instead going to be unprecedented growth in inflation and interest rates, the 2022 outlook quickly turned to one of impending recession and a collapse of the housing market. While the economy and housing took their lumps in 2022, recessionary fears thankfully didn’t materialize. At least not yet.

After the last few fiscal cycles have been upended by widespread disease and the first land war in Europe since World War II, it’s becoming dicier and dicier to accurately predict where the U.S. and global economies will be on a year-to-year basis. But that doesn’t stop many from throwing caution to the economic headwinds nonetheless.

Bloomberg.com, for instance, is reporting the chance of the U.S. sliding into recession in 2023 at 70%. JP Morgan Global Research, meanwhile, is only slightly more optimistic—expecting a U.S. recession by end of 2024.

On the brighter side is Morgan Stanley, whose experts suggest growth will “tread water” helping the U.S. to “narrowly” avoid a recession. Goldman Sachs Research also used “narrowly” in its forecast that fading inflation will keep the U.S. out of recession in 2023.

Recession or not, one thing’s clear: It looks like even the most optimistic prognostications for 2023 mean another year of belt tightening for families and businesses.

It’s uncertain times like these that remind us of the importance of those North Bay businesses whose imperatives aren’t producing revenue, but supporting lives: Nonprofits.

Nonprofit businesses are the foundational safety nets of our society—and more so than ever during times of economic fragility, when a change in health or an unexpected redundancy can find families and individuals facing housing, wellness and food insecurities.

This month’s Business & Nonprofits issue includes several features focused on the good works of local nonprofits—from Judith Wilson’s in-depth look at the Santa Rosa-based First Responders Resiliency and its efforts to highlight the chronic stress of first responders to Jessie De La O’s piece on Napa Valley’s OLE Health and its lower-cost medical and wellness services for local vineyard and farm workers. And don’t miss writer Jane Hodges Young’s story about what to expect when joining a nonprofit’s board of directors—the satisfaction of donating your time and expertise comes with commitments both personal and financial, say experts.

Meanwhile, Bo Kearns’ cover story focuses on the innovative work of Sonoma County Wildlife Rescue, whose efforts to rehabilitate injured fauna—and provide humane and sustainable ways for critter control at North Bay homes, farms and vineyards—is a needed reminder that our four-legged neighbors can benefit from a helping hand/paw from the nonprofit community as well.

Whatever challenges and triumphs the coming year has in store, we know one prediction that will surely come to pass: the many businesses—large and small—and nonprofits in the North Bay will strive to serve the community to the best of their abilities. And we at NorthBay biz will be here to tell you about it.

Here’s to 2023!

Jason Walsh, editor

Jason Walsh is editor in chief of NorthBay biz magazine and northbaybiz.com. A North Bay native, he’s spent his career covering the news, lifestyles and people of Sonoma, Marin and Napa counties. When not up to his elbows in page proofs, you can find him and his family exploring all corners of the North Bay from their home base in Novato. 

 

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