It’s January, when standard column fare consists of things you need to be doing (like finally making sure your system backups actually work, or consulting with a technology expert to map out a plan for your business) or trends you need to be aware of to out-do your competition (like telepresence and virtualization). The goal, of course, is a banner year for your business, large or small.
So, permit me (in the spirit of NorthBay biz’s viticultural raconteur, Rich Thomas) the following heretical remark: Frankly, my dear, the changing face of business technology isn’t changing much at all.
The flat truth is that change is expensive, and all businesses view expense with a gimlet eye. Of course, it’s perfectly reasonable to ask what the expected return on any given investment will be. Unfortunately, it’s hard to predict the outcome. Anyone who’s been through business school knows a 10 percent chance of a $1 million profit and a 90 percent chance of a $100,000 loss is just about a break-even deal—and probably hardly worth the effort. Assigning the probabilities is more black art than science, though.
At its core, business is very simple. You must provide something people will pay for. At the same time, your revenues must exceed your costs. Last, your business model needs to be sustainable for some period of time. Business technology is just a means to meeting these ends. Accounting firms with calculators beat out those with pencils and, in turn, were beaten out by firms with computer software.
But calculators are more expensive than pencils, and software more expensive than calculators. The good news is, all of them are cheaper than people. The best use of business technology is to simultaneously remove people from tasks where they aren’t particularly efficient and to leverage their abilities where only a human will suffice. If you’re thinking about how to deploy or expand technology in your business for 2008, the question you should be asking is: What’s the best use of people? To help you contemplate that question, be aware of these upcoming trends:
• The amount of bandwidth available is increasing. Businesses are evolving from dial-up to DSL to cable. Home users can now get superfast fiber connectivity with Verizon’s FiOS service. Even mobile users can now get megabit speeds using Verizon’s EV-DO Rev. A. The amount of information you can provide to anyone, regardless of their location, is increasing. This is one of the driving forces behind telepresence.
• Along with increasing bandwidth, mobile devices like laptops and smartphones mean we’re almost always connected. Short of an airplane in flight or a remote wilderness, I can be reached—and reach others—all the time by phone, email, instant messaging or the Web. In that context, what’s the meaning of a 40-hour week?
• The two previous items mean the distinction between “at work” and “not at work” is blurring—perhaps not for the front-line workers at the local Gap or McDonalds, but for more and more people, especially the highest-paid, most-leveraged people in your organization (see this month’s cover story for more on this trend). If we pay people for value produced and not for hours in the office, how does that change the world of work? How do you measure the value produced by an employee?
(A brief aside: As Generation Y enters the workforce, the effect of these trends becomes more pronounced. I highly recommend reading The Four-Hour Workweek by Tim Ferriss, www.fourhourworkweek.com, and Penelope Trunk’s Brazen Careerist www.penelopetrunk.com for some insights, as well as an article in the November 12, 2007 issue of Fortune about how UPS trains Generation Y employees).
• At the same time, technology increasingly enables self-service. I can pay bills online, bank online, shop online, order groceries and more. And it’s not just an online phenomenon. Lucky’s and IKEA now offer self-service checkout. (Speaking of which, if you’re in retail and you haven’t visited IKEA in Emeryville, you aren’t keeping up. It’s a model of retail self-service, as well as a fun shopping experience.) Why is self-service popular? Because regular avenues of service are becoming more painful and/or less satisfying. If you employ salespeople (or “retail associates”), they must be reducing your customers’ pain or increasing your customers’ satisfaction. I love airport check-in kiosks (except when they decide I can’t check in, at which time I desperately want a helpful human being).
• Design matters a lot. Two of the best-designed consumer devices on the market, the iPod and the iPhone, have had massive success because their great look and intuitive interface is coupled with the preceding trends (for example, the iPod makes music available all the time, and it’s self-service via iTunes which, in turn, works because bandwidth is cheap). People will pay for a well-integrated service.
• Storage is cheap. We’re now able to carry a significant portion of our “bits” around with us in the form of music, photos, video, contacts, documents, audio messages and correspondence (email). My iPhone has 2,000 times more memory than the computer I used to write Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing back in 1987, and it’s non-volatile (meaning it doesn’t go away when the device is turned off).
Change is scary, and the day-to-day rush of business often makes it harder to contemplate.
Here’s a simple example. Most workers will be more productive with dual displays. It’s also a form of recognition. LCD displays cost less than $300. If two screens make your $50,000 employee even one percent more effective, it’s a win. Yet most businesses don’t take this simple step, even for their most valuable people. Why? I dunno.
Perhaps the best New Year’s recommendation I can give is this: Take a day away from the office to think deeply about where you want your business to go in the coming year. How can you leverage the people in your organization? How can you replace manual tasks with automation?
There are other trends I see on the horizon (virtualization, Web-based applications, the low cost of startups, software as a service, utility computing and visual interfaces, to name a few), but none matter without a willingness to change the face of your business.
